Week Jul 11, 2025

After the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill and ease of the geopolitical tensions, the market shifted its focus to global trade.

The Trump Administration send out letters to foreign countries with updated tariff rates, prompting them to bring their deals to the table by the deadline of August 1.

Stocks stabilized a bit with the SPY flat week over week and a drop in the VIX.

Market is starting to look forward to the start of the earnings season and inflation report. While some companies earnings report may reflect the 10% tariff that was imposed back in April, others may have delayed effect if they front loaded some inventory before Liberation Day.

Inflation report will provide insight of price levels from potential tariff impacts, productivity gains from AI, and consumer demand changes from layoffs.

The bid-to-cover ratio from bond auction shows more than sufficient demand. In addition, Treasury posted an unexpected surplus in June. Despite all these data points, Treasury Yields rose a bit, especially on the longer tenor.

Fixed Income

Yields rose this week despite a strong bond auction and an unexpected surplus from Treasury.

Equity

Next Week

• Earnings

• Inflation report

Market Outlook